Abstract:
The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the bullwhip effect (BE) occurs in CPO production at PTPN VII Unit Bekri, Lampung. Moreover, we make forecasting for the demand of CPO Products using the Double Moving Average (DMA) method and the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method as well as comparing the forecast result from both of these methods based on the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values. The monthly data on CPO production and sales for the period 2019 – 2021 is used for forecasting demand of CPO products. Our result shows that the initial BE value (1.08) is higher than a parameter value (1.04) and it indicates occurs BE on CPO production in PTPN VII Unit Bekri, Lampung. Furthermore, our findings also found that the value of MSE and MAPE from using the DMA method is lower than the DES method. Based on the results of this study, it is also expected to contribute references related to the application of forecasting methods in order to minimize BE. The DES method can be used to minimize BE that occurs in PTPN VII bekri units, based on the results of the analysis the DES method can reduce the BE value by 0.09.
Keywords: bullwhip effect; DES; DMA; forecasting
Cited As:
Darmawan, D. S., Nugraha, A. T., & Wahyudi, R. (2022). Peramalan Deret Berkala dalam Mengurangi Bullwhip Effect pada Sistem Rantai Pasok Komoditas Sawit pada PTPN VII, Lampung, Indonesia. Agro Bali : Agricultural Journal, 5(2), 331-341. http://dx.doi.org/10.21831/economia.v18i2.38821
