COVID-19 Pandemic and Performance of Indonesian Stock Market: An Event Study Analysis

Abstract : The aims of study are to analyze and evaluate the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) performance before, during, and after the official announcement day on March 2nd, 2020. Five industry sectors were observed, i.e agriculture, property, manufacture, consumer, and mining sector. Event study analysis method is used to value the short-term influence of the announcement day on the selected stock market performance in Indonesia. The findings of the study indicated that manufacturing and consumer sectors had better stock performance with positive results of their abnormal return, unlike the agriculture and property sectors which showed the opposite result of their stock performance. The stock performance in the mining sector remained stable even after the announcement day. Indonesian Government, particularly the companies’ management, is expected to pay more attention to the aggrieved industries because of the negative effect of outbreaks, especially on the agriculture and property sector. 

Keywords: COVID-19, Event Study, Abnormal Return, Stock Performance, Indonesia Stock Exchange.

Cited as :

Nugraha, A.T., Hakimah, Y., & Fawzi, AM., (2022). COVID-19 Pandemic and Performance of Indonesian Stock Market: An Event Study Analysis. Jurnal Economia, 18(2), 204-220. https://doi.org/10.21831/economia.v18i2.38821

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Forecasting Periodic Series to Reduce the Bullwhip Effect in Palm Oil Commodity Supply Chain System in PTPN VII, Lampung, Indonesia

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the bullwhip effect (BE) occurs in CPO production  at PTPN VII Unit Bekri, Lampung. Moreover, we make forecasting for the demand of CPO Products using the Double Moving Average (DMA) method and the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method as well as comparing the forecast result from both of these methods based on the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values. The monthly data on CPO production and sales for the period 2019 – 2021 is used for forecasting demand of CPO products. Our result shows that the initial BE value (1.08) is higher than a parameter value (1.04) and it indicates occurs BE on CPO production in PTPN VII Unit Bekri, Lampung. Furthermore, our findings also found that the value of MSE and MAPE from using the DMA method is lower than the DES method. Based on the results of this study, it is also expected to contribute references related to the application of forecasting methods in order to minimize BE. The DES method can be used to minimize BE that occurs in PTPN VII bekri units, based on the results of the analysis the DES method can reduce the BE value by 0.09.

Keywords: bullwhip effect; DES; DMA; forecasting 

Cited As: 
Darmawan, D. S., Nugraha, A. T., & Wahyudi, R. (2022). Peramalan Deret Berkala dalam Mengurangi Bullwhip Effect pada Sistem Rantai Pasok Komoditas Sawit pada PTPN VII, Lampung, Indonesia. Agro Bali : Agricultural Journal, 5(2), 331-341. http://dx.doi.org/10.21831/economia.v18i2.38821

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